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Crime Analysis
Officer Rob Stering, Waltham (MA) Police Department, is the Founder and Past President of the Massachusetts Association of Crime Analysis (MACA). Rob is a Certified Criminal Intelligence Analyst (C.C.I.A.) from the California State University and California Department of Justice Program. He has been involved in analysis since 1985, performing a job task analysis and classification for the police department, and creating a generic document that can be used by any size agency. He began doing crime analysis in 1993. Some of the accomplishments MACA has achieved are conducting annual training conferences, drawing attendees from across the nation and international borders; and setting up a web page, (www.ableweb.com/maca). This web page has become a resource for crime analysts, nationwide. With the help and efforts of MACA members, this article is being submitted. Chris Bruce, Cambridge (MA) Police Department, the newly elected President of MACA, has been most instrumental in preparing our site and making resources available. Other executive board members who have given invaluable contributions are: Twyla Alvarez, Somerville (MA) Police Department, Treasurer; Tom Callahan, Woburn (MA) Police Department, Secretary; Larry Newman, Haverhill (MA) Police Department, VP-Membership; and Mark Bachta, Danvers (MA) Police Department, VP-Training. Simply put, crime analysis is the study of crime patterns and trends. Most crime is made up of random, unpredictable, unconnected incidents. A man seizes the opportunity to steal a laptop left unattended. An argument in a bar erupts into a fight. A man is killed in a drug deal gone awry. A date rape. Some bullies steal a classmate's hat on the playground. A bored housewife shoplifts a pair of earrings. A feud between neighbors leads to a rock thrown through a bedroom window. These crimes are usually isolated incidents that can be handled with traditional police response, investigation, and court proceedings. Crime analysts look for crimes that are not part of isolated incidents. We look for the gas station robber who holds up a different clerk every Friday night; the rapist who stalks women in parks in the eastern half of the city; the pigeon-drop con artist; the repeat auto thief; the group of kids who smash car windows every weekend; the purse snatcher; the domestic violence "hot spot"; the serial killer. Our job is to identify these patterns and trends and inform the patrol officers, the investigators, and, in many cases, the public. Based on the information at hand, we try to predict where and when the criminal is going to strike again. Finally, we work with other members of the department, other city agencies, and the public to develop strategies to eradicate problems. The Crime Analysis Process Data Collection & Management: the gathering of crime, offender, and police operations data from multiple sources. The most important sources are the crime incident report and the call for service record. Data is entered into records management systems, special crime analysis databases, and matrixes. Data Scanning: the regular review of data to look for crime patterns and trends. Pattern/Trend Identification: the establishment of a crime pattern or trend. Pattern/Trend Analysis: a careful study of the crime data to determine the who, what, when, where, why, and how of a crime pattern or trend. This often involves the use of sophisticated graphing, calculation, and mapping programs, as well as a good dose of the analyst's experience, intelligence, and common sense. Information Dissemination: the publication of analyzed crime patterns and trends through bulletins, reports, and other crime analysis products. Crime analysts disseminate different types of information to patrol officers, investigators, command staff members, and the public. Strategy Development: the skillful and intelligent manipulation of manpower and other resources to intervene in a crime pattern or trend. This may involve directed patrol, priority investigation, intelligence gathering, surveillance, decoys, traps, environmental re-design, and a host of other strategies involving the crime analysts, the police department, other city agencies, and the public. Good strategy development often involves bringing the minds of the police agency personnel around a table to discuss potential tactics; some departments do this regularly and call it a "Compstat" meeting. Strategy Evaluation: the careful analysis of the effectiveness of the strategies implemented. How Crimes Can Be Linked Trend: This type of crime phenomenon generally afflicts a large geographic area over an extended period of time. Generally a trend occurs when an area, for whatever reason, becomes more conducive or less conducive to a particular crime or group of crimes. In a trend, the same perpetrator is not committing the majority of the crimes, and the same target is not repeatedly victimized. Examples: The gentrification of a particular neighborhood leads to heavy decreases in muggings and housebreaks over the course of a year. The opening of a new commercial center in one part of town increases shoplifting at those establishments and increases auto theft from surrounding parking lots. An unusually warm winter increases muggings in the early evening. A decline in population leads to a decline in all crimes. Pattern: A group of the same crimes committed over a shorter time period than a trend that has a common proximate cause, including (possibly) the same perpetrator. "Pattern" is also sometimes used as a general term to signify any crime problem. Examples: When students return to campus in the fall, thefts of laptop computers increase in dormitories. Automobiles start disappearing from the parking lot at a mall during the Christmas season. Reports of drug dealing increase in a park. Wallets are being stolen from health club lockers in the northern part of the city. Patrons of restaurants in City Square keep having their purses stolen between 8:00 p.m. and midnight. Series: A group of the same crimes committed over a short time period, probably by the same perpetrator. Examples: A slick-talking man with a southern accent scams elderly residents out of money by pretending to be an insurance salesman. A scruffy looking man in his 40s snatches women's purses along the commercial drag. A nighttime prowler breaks into a dozen houses across two city blocks over the course of a week. Autos keep disappearing from a particular parking lot only to show up on the same block in a neighboring town. A serial killer. Spree: A group of the same crimes committed almost at the same time, by the same perpetrator. Examples: A group of kids walking home from a party smash the windows of every car on a particular street. A mugger robs four people coming out of the subway station in a single night. A mass murderer. Hot Spot: A location where a variety of crimes keep occurring over an extended period of time. Examples: An apartment from which domestic crimes (abuse, theft, and threats) are continually reported. A bar where fights break out constantly. A park known for robbery, drug dealing, and sexual assault. A crowded mall where shoplifting, pocket picking, and check forgery are reported on a daily basis. Criminogen: An individual known offender responsible for large numbers of minor crimes or an individual victim that reports a large number of crimes. Examples: John Smith, who is having trouble paying his rent, over the course of a week scams an out-of-towner with a "pigeon drop," steals a computer from a local business, forges checks stolen from his best friend, and beats up a drinking buddy to get his money. A troubled teenager is constantly reported missing from the local shelter. Jane Doe convinced that the CIA is wiretapping her house, keeps filling out burglary reports. Criminal Organization/Conspiracy: an organization, gang, or other group of persons dedicated to perpetuating one or a number of different crimes, usually for financial profit, but often for other motivations. Criminal organizations and conspiracies are identified and analyzed through a special type of analysis called Criminal Intelligence Analysis, which is generally considered a distinct profession, and is rarely performed by crime analysts. Examples: The Mafia, a street gang, a drug cartel, a prostitution ring, a fencing operation, and a terrorist cell. These problems are identified through a number of means. It depends on the individual crime analyst and the nature of crime in his or her town and city. Some of us can read every report that is taken every day for anything; others concentrate on a specific set of "target crimes." Some build databases to help identify problems quickly. Sometimes we map crimes to look for geographic clusters. There are a hundred different techniques. The Types of Crime Analysis Not all law enforcement analysts do the same type of work. There are several different types of policing analysis. Crime analysts spend varying percentages of their time on the following types of analysis: Tactical Crime Analysis: Day-to-day crime analysis, looking for series, patterns, sprees, hot spots, and hot dots immediately affecting the jurisdiction. Immediate publication of this information to the patrol officers (e.g., Street Robberies This Week in South Central). Immediate development of strategies in order to "get out there" and end the pattern. Strategic Crime Analysis: The study of long-term trends and hot spots affecting the city (e.g., A Study of Auto Theft Patterns in the Downtown Area over the Last Six Months). Publication in special reports on a quarterly or annual basis. Strategy development that will affect police resource allocation over a long period of time. Administrative/Academic Crime Analysis: Preparing special reports or statistical summaries at the request of grant funders, commanders, and members of the public. Interesting to know, but not necessarily relevant (e.g., The Average Height of Arrested Felons over the Past Five Years). Generally does not affect current strategy development. Operations Analysis: The study of policing practices as regards patrol and resource allocation (e.g., A Study of Police Overtime Assignments Last Year). Coupled with Strategic Crime Analysis, helps patrol commanders to make changes that use resources more efficiently. Intelligence Analysis: The study of criminal organizations and enterprises, how they are linked, who the key players are. Helps investigation and prosecution. Investigative Analysis: Crime scene, psychological, and forensic analysis used in major crimes. Helps catch serial killers, arsonists, and similar criminals. Specialized units, only in larger departments, generally conduct Operations Analysis, Intelligence Analysis, and Investigative Analysis and the average Crime Analyst spends most of his or her time on these three types.
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